Back-to-School Signals a New Reality: Shoppers Need More Than Promotions

Circana data shows that a purposeful approach to spending continues through July as shoppers prioritize needs over deals

CHICAGO, Aug. 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CHICAGO, August 14, 2026 — U.S. consumers remain engaged in the retail market, but increasingly on their own terms. Overall retail sales revenue increased 1.0% in July compared to last year, while unit sales declined 2.0%, reflecting ongoing consumer selectivity as well as the shift of early summer retailer promotions from July last year into June this year. New Circana, LLC data shows that spending growth is being driven less by promotional events and more by shoppers making deliberate purchases based on need, a trend that is shaping the back-to-school season and could influence holiday shopping in the months ahead.

“Consumers are still spending, but they are increasingly doing so through prioritization rather than expansion; driven by purpose rather than promotions,” said Kiara Barrett, Global Head of Thought Leadership at Circana. “Promotional activity remains important, but broad discounts alone are generating less incremental demand.”

For the four weeks ending August 1, nonedible consumer packaged goods (CPG) dollars were down 0.9%, and unit sales fell 3.6%. Discretionary general merchandise retail dollar sales decreased 4.3%, and unit demand dropped 3.9% compared to the same period a year ago. Circana data shows that consumers continue to carefully prioritize discretionary purchases. Lower-income consumers are still pulling back on these categories. Growth is more concentrated among higher-income households and a narrowing set of categories, particularly those that deliver clear value, convenience, health benefits or affordable enjoyment. At the same time, food and beverage sales revenue rose 0.5% and unit sales increased 1.6%, highlighting the continued demand for essential purchases.

Recent spending patterns, including those related to back-to-school shopping, demonstrate the shift in the consumer’s mindset. They are continuing to shop as needs arise rather than concentrating purchases around major promotional events. The result is a more measured shopping season, with shoppers balancing value-seeking behavior against essential purchasing needs. June promotions successfully pulled some overall retail demand forward, but did not have the same impact on back-to-school shopping.  

Circana anticipates that the traditional back-to-school shopping season will be moderate at best: low on unit demand, with higher spending driven by pricing. Consumers will be more focused on the core elements, making deeper purchases as the needs arise even well beyond the first days of school, with even the highest-income groups exhibiting some caution.

“As marketers look toward the holiday shopping season, the back-to-school experience offers an important lesson: promotions alone may not be enough to stimulate demand,” said Barrett. “Retail success depends on reaching the right shopper with the right product, the right offer, and in the right channel — all at the moment of need.”

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About Circana 
Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data^® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.  

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• Back-to-school Retail Performance To-Date

Janine Marshall
Circana
janine.marshall@circana.com